Bitcoin Could Be in Early Bull Market, Willy Woo Says With 90% Odds

Bitcoin (BTC) traded weaker Wednesday after the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, pushing BTC below $75,000 before it recovered above $80k.

Despite the short-term weakness, on-chain analyst Willy Woo believes Bitcoin may have already established its market bottom and entered the early stages of a new bull market.

In a Wednesday post on X, Woo assigned a 90% probability to the bottom being in, pointing to improving liquidity conditions and renewed participation from long-term investors.

“I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%. We are in an early bull market structure based on long-term investor liquidity returning,” Woo stated.

His comments came as the broader cryptocurrency market faced selling pressure after the CLARITY Act failed to pass a procedural vote in the U.S. Senate on September 15. The bill received 49 votes in favor and 50 against, falling short of the 60 votes required to advance.

According to the analyst, the traditional cycle approach currently produces a much less convincing signal, with the consensus among analysts relying on those patterns at around 40%.

“Shaping my view is BTC’s liquidity structure; I’m deliberately avoiding historical cycle patterns which have been very successful to date in calling bottoms,” he said.

Instead, Woo is watching Bitcoin’s liquidity structure and the return of capital from longer-term investors. He said the current structure remains bullish as long as investor flows continue to hold up.

However, the pundit does not have a fixed timeline for how long the potential bull market could last. He noted that historical cycle patterns are becoming less reliable, making it difficult to determine whether the next advance could last several years.

Woo’s view aligns with other on-chain indicators suggesting Bitcoin’s recent weakness may not necessarily mark the start of a prolonged bearish phase.

CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost recently noted that short-term Bitcoin holders have remained in profit for almost a month. On Monday, the analyst said this differs from previous recovery attempts, when profitable positions were quickly followed by renewed selling.

The analysis showed about $168 billion in short-term holder Bitcoin in profit, compared with just over $100 billion in unrealized losses. Darkfost said similar behavior appeared around the transition out of the 2022-2023 bear market.

Long-term holder activity has also shown signs of improvement, although analysts have stressed that historical patterns do not guarantee the same outcome this time.

That said, amid this optimism, other market analysts remain cautious. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone has warned that a significant correction in the S&P 500 could weigh heavily on Bitcoin because of its growing correlation with broader risk assets.

“Launched during the Great Recession in 2009, Bitcoin has led the way up for risk assets and may now be leading the way back down,” McGlone stated Sunday. “Bitcoin may be tracking toward its enduring pivot around $10,000, and one simple factor could get it there — about a 20% drawdown in the SPX that persists for a while, as has happened historically.” 

At press time, BTC was trading at $84,752, up 1.86% in the past 24 hours.