Bitcoin Holders Trigger Largest Capitulation In Its History, Bearish Horizon For BTC?

Bitcoin follows a rangebound trajectory as the financial world trends to the downside. The first crypto by market cap is moving around critical areas of support as it was rejected from the low $40,000s.

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At the time of writing, BTC’s price trades at $38,500 with a 2% profit in the last 24 hours.

BTC moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

The general sentiment in the crypto market trends downside with the price of larger cryptocurrencies. Market participants seem to be expecting Bitcoin to reach the low $20,000s or even lower at the mid area around $10,000.

A recent report from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode supports the bearish thesis but points to Bitcoin’s capacity to stay at its current levels. The macro-outlook is pessimistic. This has been reflected in traditional equities.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have been trending to the downside with many recording corrections as they failed to meet earnings expectations. Despite the trend, Bitcoin remains at $38,000 and in a range.

It is significant that Bitcoin has been able to hold. Especially, as it has been trading in tandem with big tech equities and as Glassnode records an increase in the number of Long-Term Holders selling their BTC.

The on-chain analytics firm claims that the cryptocurrency has experienced the largest capitulation from Long Term Holders in its history. These investors are usually the last to sell their coins in the market, but the macro-outlook seems to be contributing to this trend.

In addition, Glassnode records an increase in the number of BTC exchanging hands over the past months. This has changed lifted the threshold at which BTC investors record losses. Those levels are located between $33,000 and $42,000.

Therefore, it’s no coincidence that BTC’s price has been moving in that range. This is why those levels could operate as a major support zone in case of further downside. In past bear markets, BTC holders in profit were between 45% to 57% before the cryptocurrency saw a bottom.

This metric currently stands at around 70%. If history is to repeat itself, BTC’s price could drop to around $28,000 to $30,000 to reach a key “pain level”, according to Glassnode.

Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin Close To Undervalued Levels

On the other hand, Bitcoin short-term investors could push the price down to that pain level. These market participants record a cost basis of $46,900 per BTC. They are major losses and could panic sell their assets if the bearish trend extends.

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Glassnode concluded the following on BTC’s price potential for a re-test of lower levels, and when it could see a bottom:

The current market structure for Bitcoin remains in an extremely delicate equilibrium, with short-term price action and network profitability leaning bearish, whilst long-term trends remain constructive (…). Whether macro forces and correlations with traditional markets drag Bitcoin lower remains to be seen, however numerous fundamental indicators at or approaching noteworthy points of undervaluation.