Could Bitcoin jump significantly after the U.S. midterms? Here’s what can happen

In a recent report, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant observed that the S&P 500 has advanced in all 19 twelve-month periods following U.S. midterm elections since 1950, delivering an average return of 15.4%. Notably, the third year of a presidential term has also tended to be the strongest for stocks, with lower political uncertainty encouraging risk-taking, CryptoQuant notes, while stressing that these historical tendencies do not establish causation.

Per the report, Bitcoin posted gains of 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the twelve months after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterms, respectively. Subsequently, the cryptocurrency dropped 45.5% in the first month following the 2018 vote. With only three data points, CryptoQuant says, no durable pattern can be reliably inferred.

CryptoQuant’s data show that Bitcoin’s price and the number of active addresses can move independently, as active addresses do not equate to individual investors and provide no direct gauge of demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Broader market conditions remain pivotal in the long term

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.28% on October 2, and a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed in September. According to the analysis, clear election outcomes alone will not automatically loosen financial conditions or settle regulatory questions.

Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $241.1 million in net inflows between September 28 and October 2. CryptoQuant suggests monitoring whether yields stabilize, inflows continue, and regulatory progress materializes. 

Political clarity may support Bitcoin, but sustained advances will still depend on favorable market fundamentals. Historical trends supply useful context, the firm concludes, but they are not a forecast.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

At report time, Bitcoin is trading at $83,191, up roughly 1.5% over 24 hours. 30-day gains remain positive at nearly 5%, while weekly performance is mixed.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​