Crypto Investors Brace For CPI Report On Valentine’s Day – Will The Figures Be In Their Favor?

Last month’s crypto market rally was caused in part by optimistic investors with positive sentiment in the broader financial market.

Crypto isn’t the only market that rallied, stocks experienced a surge as well with major indices showing gains. However, economic woes seemed to have spread since the onset of February. 

In Europe, stocks traded low in the past few days as news about the UK’s zero-percent growth sparked pessimism in the market.

In Asia, stocks were down Monday, sliding on a second weekly retreat as investors fretted about the likelihood of further tightening by the US central bank and the effect on crypto and the US economy.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the CPI report on Tuesday, February 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

According to economists surveyed by Dow Jones, headline inflation will rise 0.4% per month and 6.2% annually.

On CPI Figures And Its Impact On Crypto

The Consumer Price Index report, which analyzes price changes for goods and services, has the potential to influence the cryptocurrency market in several ways.

First, a higher-than-anticipated CPI figure could cause investors to seek other investments, such as cryptocurrencies that are not tethered to fiat currencies  or central banks.

Second, a CPI figure that comes in lower than predicted could have the reverse impact, leading to less interest for cryptocurrencies.

It’s worth noting, though, that the CPI report is just one of several potential market-moving events in the bitcoin space.

Market mood, regulatory changes, and general economic trends can all have an influence on the price of cryptocurrencies.

Monthly CPI Expected To Have Risen Last Month

Last month might be a great time for both stocks and alternative investments like crypto, but macroeconomic indicators show a very different story.

Economists expect that the US monthly CPI might rise from 0.1% last December to 0.5% in January.

This is, however, very contradictory to the year-on-year CPI which is expected to decrease to 6.2% from December’s 6.5% YoY. 

This expected increase in month-to-month CPI figures is a sign that economists are pessimistic about the short to medium term improvements for the economy.

This pessimism is somewhat reflected in the recent market movement of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. 

US Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman also recently said that the Fed is still eyeing more increases as inflation is still above the 2% target.

With this aggressive policy along with low consumer spending marked by a lower Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, investors might be pessimistic about the same market rally that started in January. 

What Can The Crypto Market Expect?

Strong volatility might enter the broader financial market if the MoM CPI data is as expected or lower. Overall, this week will be very important for both equities and crypto as the two markets are strongly correlated with one another.

With the current market pain that crypto is experiencing, we might see lower lows as poorly performing Bitcoin and Ethereum drag investor confidence down. 

As the market waits anxiously, investors can only hope that the macros will improve in the coming weeks.

However, recent news shows that there is a chance that a soft recession might happen, with some analysts expecting a short and shallow recession. 

Although this might be good news for crypto, this could not off-set the short to medium term consequences of worsening macro.

Investors and traders should also expect more pain to come as the market continues its pessimistic stance. 

Still, anything can happen as they await the outcome of the CPI report.

-Featured image from Forbes