Supply Shock Looms For BTC as Bitcoin Miners Start to Feel Post-Halving Tension

Top Bitcoin miners, including Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital, are starting to feel the pressure of the block reward halving that took place on April 19, 2024. These updates happen roughly every four years and are pre-programmed into the Bitcoin Network. They usually result in a supply shock that eventually translates into a roaring bull market, which brings the crypto to new highs.

Bitcoin is currently holding steady above the $60k price support, but the market is quite uneasy at the moment. 2024 started with the bulls forcing a major price increase that resulted in the index gaining a whopping 78% at one point before cooling off somewhat. It is still very much in the bullish zone, but the uptick has slowed considerably.

Image Source: TradingView

Lack of an Immediate Bullish Stimulus

One reason the premier digital currency’s price uptick has slowed down is a lack of immediate external stimuli. In the buildup to the early 2024 rally above $40k, Bitcoin had two major external events egging the bulls on: the Bitcoin Halving and the approval of spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in the second week of January, while the Bitcoin halving took place in the third week of April. The ETF approval had been pending for several years and proved more beneficial for the bullish cause. The index has since cemented itself considerably above $60k, with only sporadic short-term moves below the key support level.

So, Are We There Yet?

The answer is that we are getting there. The approximate daily supply of the largest crypto by market capitalization has dropped massively from 900 BTC to just 450 BTC. This dramatic reduction in block rewards has affected miners directly, and if the price remains stable, they are set to lose $10 billion in revenue because of the halving alone.

However, that isn’t what usually happens, as the smaller block reward leads to a drop in the periodic supply of the digital currency. This, in turn, causes a supply shock that results in a major appreciation for BTC. Miners eventually do even better than before and only offload their precious holdings if the price is attractive.

But the million-dollar question is: When will the supply shock of the 2024 Bitcoin halving result in actual appreciation? Estimates range from anywhere between Q3 and Q4 of 2024, and the bull market is expected to last many months well into 2025.