TA: Bitcoin Near Make-or-Break Levels, Why 100 SMA Is The Key

Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $38,400 resistance against the US Dollar. BTC must clear $39,600 to move into a positive zone.

• Bitcoin managed to stay above $37,650 and started an upside correction.
• The price is now trading near $39,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $39,220 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair must clear the $39,600 resistance to start a decent increase in the near term.

Bitcoin Price Recovers Ground

Bitcoin price formed a base above the $38,000 and started a recovery wave. BTC broke the $38,400 and $38,500 resistance levels.

There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the key drop from the $40,775 swing high to $37,672 low. Bitcoin even climbed above the $39,500 level, but it faced sellers near the $39,600 level. It is now trading near $39,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $39,220 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the $39,600 level.

The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the key drop from the $40,775 swing high to $37,672 low is also near the $39,600 level. The next key resistance could be near the $40,000 zone. A close above the $39,600 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average could open the doors for a decent increase.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

In the stated case, the price could even surpass the $40,000 resistance. The next major resistance may perhaps be near the $40,770 zone.

Fresh Decline in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to clear the $39,600 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. An immediate support on the downside is near the $39,250 level.

The next major support is seen near the trend line and $39,200. A close below the $39,200 support zone might start another decline. In the stated case, the price might drop to $38,400.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $39,200, followed by $38,400.

Major Resistance Levels – $39,600, $40,000 and $40,770.