Bitcoin Will Never Drop Below $40K Again? PlanB’s Analysis

08.02.2024 / Payment system news

With almost all losses from the post-ETF-approval apocalypse already erased and the upcoming halving, which tends to serve as a catalyst for future price increases, the crypto community continues to speculate how high Bitcoin can go this year.

PlanB, the popular analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model, believes the asset will not go below $40,000 due to its realized price.

Never Again Below $40K?

The primary cryptocurrency has already gone through a real rollercoaster since the start of the year, induced by the ETF approvals in the States. As many speculated, the launch of these products indeed became a sell-the-news event, with BTC’s price falling by ten grand in a few weeks after they reached the US markets.

Nevertheless, the asset managed to recover approximately all losses and earlier today pumped to nearly $45,000. According to PlanB, this retracement to sub-$40,000 levels was somewhat unexpected and might not happen again.

This is because of Bitcoin’s realized prices on different scales. The popular analyst indicated that the overall BTC realized price is up from last month and is currently at $23,000.

The 2-year realized price is at $32,000 and the 5-month is at $40,000. As such, BTC’s current market price of almost $45,000 means the asset is above all of those realized prices, which PlanB categorized as a “very bullish sign.” He also speculated that Bitcoin’s market price might never go below $40,000 again.

Realized prices are all increasing, and bitcoin is above them all = bullish. Also, 5M realized price (currently $40k) acts like a floor for the dips in bull markets (red arrows). So .. never below $40k again?
More info here:

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 8, 2024

Major Bitcoin Price Predictions

With the ETF approvals already a fact and the fourth halving scheduled to take place within two months, the community is focused on giving their predictions about BTC’s price movements in the next year or so.

A recent study by Bitget forecasted a price tag of $150,000 for the asset in the near future, which would mean more than double its previous ATH of $69,000. Interestingly, the author of the Rich Dad Poor Dad best-seller – Robert Kiyosaki – had a similar price prediction.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee also sees BTC going somewhere between $100,000 and $150,000 this year but also shooting up to $500,000 by the end of the decade.

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